Expected Chance of Missing a Debt Payment

Written by Steven Reynolds · New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, September 2026

On average, consumers put the chance that they will miss a minimum debt payment in the next three months at 12.2% in September 2026, down from 13.2% in August, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. A year earlier the figure was 12.6%. The average for the previous 12 months was 12.7%.

The expected chance was higher for people with household income under $50,000 (17.4%) than for those above $100,000 (8.3%), and higher for people under 40 (17.5%) than for those over 60 (7.6%). Since the series began in June 2013 it has ranged from 9.2% in February 2022 to 17.2% in September 2013.

By group

Download the table (CSV) (CC BY 4.0 for our table) · Click a heading to sort

GroupCategorySeptember 2026September 2025
All respondents12.2%12.6%
Under 40Age17.5%19.5%
40 to 60Age13.1%12.5%
Over 60Age7.6%7.5%
Under $50,000Income17.4%17.7%
$50,000 to $100,000Income11.7%11.8%
Over $100,000Income8.3%6.5%
High school or lessEducation14.9%14.7%
Some collegeEducation13.8%15.0%
Bachelor's degree or higherEducation8.9%8.6%
NortheastRegion11.5%12.4%
MidwestRegion12.9%13.7%
SouthRegion12.6%12.8%
WestRegion11.4%11.6%

Every month since 2013

MonthMean probability
September 202612.2%
August 202613.2%
July 202612.0%
June 202610.8%
May 202612.6%
April 202611.4%
March 202612.3%
February 202611.6%
January 202613.7%
December 202515.3%
November 202513.7%
October 202513.1%
September 202512.6%
August 202513.1%
July 202512.3%
June 202512.0%
May 202513.4%
April 202513.9%
March 202513.6%
February 202514.6%
January 202513.3%
December 202414.2%
November 202413.2%
October 202413.9%
September 202414.2%
August 202413.6%
July 202413.3%
June 202412.3%
May 202412.0%
April 202412.9%
March 202412.9%
February 202411.4%
January 202412.1%
December 202312.4%
November 202311.8%
October 202312.0%
September 202312.5%
August 202311.1%
July 202311.7%
June 202312.0%
May 202311.3%
April 202310.6%
March 202310.9%
February 202310.6%
January 202312.1%
December 202211.4%
November 202211.8%
October 202211.6%
September 202212.2%
August 202212.2%
July 202210.8%
June 202211.3%
May 202211.1%
April 202210.7%
March 202211.1%
February 20229.2%
January 202210.0%
December 202110.3%
November 202110.0%
October 202111.1%
September 20219.9%
August 20219.6%
July 202110.4%
June 20219.6%
May 20219.7%
April 202110.0%
March 20219.6%
February 202110.1%
January 202110.5%
December 202010.5%
November 202010.9%
October 20209.3%
September 202010.7%
August 20209.7%
July 20209.5%
June 20209.8%
May 202012.6%
April 202016.1%
March 202015.1%
February 202011.4%
January 202011.8%
December 201912.5%
November 201911.3%
October 201911.6%
September 201912.6%
August 201911.1%
July 201911.7%
June 201910.6%
May 201911.5%
April 201911.1%
March 201911.6%
February 201910.9%
January 201912.0%
December 201812.0%
November 201812.0%
October 201812.7%
September 201813.7%
August 201812.8%
July 201811.8%
June 201812.4%
May 201811.7%
April 201811.0%
March 201810.7%
February 201811.6%
January 201812.3%
December 201712.5%
November 201712.5%
October 201712.8%
September 201713.4%
August 201712.9%
July 201712.2%
June 201712.0%
May 201713.1%
April 201712.2%
March 201711.2%
February 201712.1%
January 201714.9%
December 201614.3%
November 201614.9%
October 201614.4%
September 201614.5%
August 201613.9%
July 201614.1%
June 201613.3%
May 201612.8%
April 201612.4%
March 201611.5%
February 201611.8%
January 201611.8%
December 201512.3%
November 201512.8%
October 201511.4%
September 201510.9%
August 201512.1%
July 201512.2%
June 201511.5%
May 201511.4%
April 201512.0%
March 201512.4%
February 201511.9%
January 201513.0%
December 201413.7%
November 201412.3%
October 201413.2%
September 201414.1%
August 201413.4%
July 201412.7%
June 201413.6%
May 201414.2%
April 201414.3%
March 201413.8%
February 201414.6%
January 201415.0%
December 201314.9%
November 201315.8%
October 201315.7%
September 201317.2%
August 201315.2%
July 201314.7%
June 201313.4%

What these numbers are

Each month the survey asks respondents what they think the percent chance is that they will not be able to make a minimum debt payment over the next three months. The figure is the average of their answers. It is an expectation, not a count of missed payments; actual delinquency is on our delinquency by loan type page. The survey is an online panel of about 1,300 household heads, and group figures rest on smaller samples, so month-to-month moves of a point or so may be noise. Comparisons over time are our calculation from the New York Fed’s figures.

Source

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility or legal liability for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.

Chart data workbook, sheets "Delinquency expectations" and "Delinquency expectations Demo", downloaded October 17, 2026; September 2026 survey released October 7, 2026. This page is not a New York Fed product, and the New York Fed does not endorse it. Our table is available under CC BY 4.0, which does not cover the New York Fed’s rights in its data. Credit "My Credit Guide (mycreditguide.org)".

Steven Reynolds, "Expected Chance of Missing a Debt Payment," My Credit Guide, October 17, 2026, https://mycreditguide.org/data/missed-debt-payment-expectations/.

Related